Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

Brazilian risk assets have rallied on the back of investor optimism about the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. But the political games have just begun. With all politicians looking to the October municipal elections and 2018 general elections, the Michel Temer administration is unlikely to impose fiscal and structural reforms. Debt dynamics are set to worsen, and we continue to short Brazilian equities.

The evolution of oil demand will be far more important for prices than the outcome of next month's International Energy Forum meeting in Algiers. The supply destruction brought on by lower prices is increasingly shifting to OPEC producers outside the Persian Gulf, which keeps the odds of a large-scale unplanned outage - in Venezuela or Nigeria, in particular - elevated.

True inflation rates in the euro area and in the U.S. are actually not that different, making the polarized divergence in expected monetary policy very difficult to justify.

Special Report

In lieu of our regular report, we are publishing a Special Report titled "Five Myths About Chinese Politics" authored by our Geopolitical Strategy team, offering insight on the Chinese leadership and the political situation.

The global search for yield, not an improvement in EM fundamentals, has been driving the EM rally. EM/China growth conditions have stabilized but not recovered. Barring a full-fledged cyclical profit upsurge in EM EPS, EM stocks are not cheap at all. EM/China final demand for commodities will disappoint and will likely produce a major reversal in EM risk assets.

Special Report

Most scenarios point towards higher Japanese bond yields with valuations overstretched. Maintain a maximum underweight stance on Japan in global hedged bond portfolios.

Special Report

The 10-year Treasury yield's post-crisis pattern suggests that a monetary policy catalyst is required to spur a material increase of around +100bps or more. In this Special Report we do a survey of the major developed market central banks to assess whether any could possibly incite such a "bond tantrum" during the next six months.

Special Report

The question of how far central banks should go in their efforts to boost growth is becoming increasingly controversial. In this Special Report, BCA Chief Economist Martin Barnes outlines his personal view that monetary policy has done enough. He will debate this issue with Peter Berezin, BCA Chief Global Strategist at next month's BCA Conference in NY.