Latest from BCA Research

Oil and metals reacted positively to the PBOC's 10 bp cut in the seven-day reverse repo rate, which will be part of the larger monetary and fiscal support needed to revive the economy. While deposit rates at state-owned banks have been reduced, additional rate cuts are expected. On the fiscal side, tax breaks and credit support are planned for the domestic EV market, while authorities are reportedly mulling further assistance for the property market.

In response to the first-ever federal indictment of a former President, investors should focus on the state of the economy and not on Trump’s legal trouble. They should also use the current market rally to stock up on protection, as a recession is still likely, albeit delayed.

The AI revolution is having a large impact on many US stocks but European equities have not enjoyed the same benefits. Is Europe really devoid of AI plays?

Bank Credit Analyst

A massive crackdown on cryptocurrencies and crypto companies began this year in the US. Liquidity has collapsed as a result. This lack of liquidity coupled with the anticipated large-scale liquidation of crypto assets by the US government and other large players could be bearish for prices over the next few months. However, a buying opportunity could emerge by year-end, as new regulatory structures in the rest of the world will finally allow institutional investors to access cryptocurrencies without operational risks. The era of thousands of cryptocurrencies is also probably over, with the space likely to consolidate into a few tokens.

A preview of what to expect from next week’s FOMC meeting.

Special Report

Global semiconductor demand will continue contracting, even though the pace of decline will moderate in 2023H2. While demand has increased briskly for Artificial Intelligence-type semiconductors, this will not be enough to lift aggregate global chip sales out of contraction. While momentum could push Emerging Asian semiconductor stocks higher in the short term, their share prices are vulnerable to the downside due to shrinking demand.

In this Insight, we answer a few crucial questions: Do the BoC and RBA decisions have any impact on what we can expect from other major central banks next week? Are there any profitable trades that can be put on, given the recent hawkish shift by these two central banks? How should global bond investors be positioned in a fixed income portfolio?

In this Insight, we answer a few crucial questions: Do the BoC and RBA decisions have any impact on what we can expect from other major central banks next week? Are there any profitable trades that can be put on, given the recent hawkish shift by these two central banks? How should global bond investors be positioned in a fixed income portfolio?

A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.