Latest from BCA Research

Top-down measures of nonfinancial corporate sector balance sheet health have been flattered in recent quarters by inaccurate data on interest expense. After correcting for the inaccurate data, we see that our best measures of corporate balance sheet health show a persistent steady deterioration.

Special Report

While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.

The ECB is done lifting interest rate for the cycle and its next move will be a cut next year. Yet, European rates will climb even higher in the second half of the decade.

While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.

Special Report

In this report, we highlight why there are upside risks to Brent crude oil and copper prices going into 2024, with the production side expected to drive deficits in these markets. To take advantage of a potential rally, we suggest basket plays for hedging this outcome.

The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.

Special Report

This Special Report is a timely reprise of a speech that I gave at the London School of Economics on our understanding and misunderstanding of generative AI. In neurological terms, generative AI has a ‘super-neocortex’ which means that it can thrash humans in abstract thinking, or IQ. But crucially, generative AI does not have a ‘limbic system’ which means that it will lag well behind humans in emotional intelligence, or EQ. I hope you find the speech insightful and provocative, especially on how we might have completely misunderstood human intelligence and super-intelligence, and the economic and societal implications for the coming decade.

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting

While Chinese stocks have low valuations and are oversold, their attractiveness is dampened by uncertainties in the magnitude of stimulus and the dismal outlook for corporate profits in the next six to nine months.

Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.