Latest from BCA Research

A Trump victory offers a buying opportunity for bonds; a Harris victory offers a selling opportunity for bonds. We explain why.

Special Report

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

Back in 2016, there was widespread concern that if Donald Trump became president, he would start a trade war. As it turned out, Trump did become president and he did start a trade war, but the US economy continued growing anyway. In a study published in August 2019, the Congressional Budget Office concluded that Trump's tariffs reduced the level of US real GDP by 0.3% - not immaterial but not earth-shattering either.

Special Report

Gen Z is coming of age and, as one of the largest cohorts in the US with significant buying power, wields increasing influence over consumer trends. The Gen Z investment thesis captures a host of nascent themes that reflect new generational preferences and spending patterns, such as fintech and online gaming, and a keen interest in investing and crypto, among others. Our Gen Z basket captures these investment themes, which are yet to go through their peak growth phase, and provides investors with an opportunity to profit from them over a long-term investment horizon.

It is premature to bet on a copper demand acceleration over the coming months. Rather, copper prices are vulnerable to the downside. We believe that a better opportunity to turn bullish on copper prices and copper mining stocks will emerge in the coming six-to-nine months.

Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a recession and we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

Special Report

Trump may be slightly favored for the White House but the US election is still extremely close. Odds of a contested or contingent election are rising, which should cause stock market volatility. A Republican sweep should cause more volatility. Democratic gridlock is next most likely but benign for stocks in the short run.

Upgrade Auto & Components Industry Group from an underweight to an overweight as it is dominated by Tesla, whose outlook has brightened.

In this report, we discuss why we are lifting our US recession probability from 60% to 65% and explain why China’s latest stimulus announcements are welcome, but probably are “too little, too late.”