The biggest risk to the equity bull market is not a US recession. The biggest risk is the end of the deeply negative real rates in Japan versus the US that have caused the rampant post-2022 inflation in US tech stock valuations. We go through the investment implications. Plus: bond prices have furth...
As the odds of a Trump victory increase, there are indications that the “Trump trade” has commenced in global financial markets, with negative short-term implications for EM. In short, the US dollar will strengthen, and US bond yields will rise in the lead-up to and after the election if Trump wins....
The semiconductor industry has decoupled: Demand for AI and advanced chips is booming, while the outlook for legacy and non-AI semiconductors is downbeat. We upgrade the US semiconductors to overweight on a tactical investment horizon as Nvidia’s good fortunes will drive the performance of the entir...
In August 2007, Ed Leamer famously presented a paper entitled Housing IS the Business Cycle at the Jackson Hole symposium. I was reminded of this paper after seeing today's US housing data....
Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?...
Earnings growth is expected to be strong enough to assuage investors' fears that recession is not yet imminent. Q3 earnings expectations have been revised downward over the past three months, and the bar for the beats has been lowered. Operating margins are also expected to expand....
In this Special Report, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy, and Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy, together argue that the conflict in Ukraine is already frozen, already losing support in the West, and is likely to taper of...
Institutional investing is not as straightforward as picking the fastest horse. Infrastructure’s attraction as an investment stems from its diversification, specifically its feature as an inflation-hedge, cash flow stability, and scalability. This Primer lays the groundwork for integrating Infrastru...
