FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese inflation-linked bonds with the Bank of Japan moving away from yield curve control at a time of relatively high Japanese inflation.
In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak. This argues for some consolidation of dollar losses in the near term.
The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.
In this report, we present our review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the full calendar year 2022 and the initial outlook for 2023. We envision a changed game plan for fixed income investing this year, as the focus of bond investors begins to shift from high inflation to slowing global growth. In this environment, asset allocation decisions between government bonds and spread product – rather than duration management – will represent the more important expected driver of bond portfolio performance.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.
The European Commission risks retarding the development of long-term contracting for renewable energy just as momentum is building. Policy uncertainty will continue to dog firms and households in the EU, if the Commission's attempts to lower energy costs for consumers at the expense of renewable-energy producers by extending “windfall profits taxes” and mandated lower costs succeed. Such measures will lower producers’ revenues, which will translate into lower renewables investment.
This week, we look at the latest data releases in the G10, along with implications for all the major currencies.
In this, our final report of a tumultuous year, we summarize our policy outlook for the “Big 4” central banks – the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and the BoJ – and the associated bond market implications for 2023.
