FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.
Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and bond market moves.
Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.
In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.
Copper markets are fast approaching a price breakout, as Chinese smelters scramble to find ore to meet increasing refined-copper demand in the wake of a global manufacturing rebound. We are holding fast to our expectation of $4.50/lb (COMEX) this year. We remain long the XME ETF to retain exposure to copper miners and refiners, and the COMT ETF to retain exposure to commodity flat price and the copper backwardation we expect.
In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.
We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.
Inflationary pressures this year will remain subdued as labor-productivity growth – driven by strong capex and R+D spending – continues. This will make the Fed more confident in beginning its policy-rate-cutting cycle in June, and will keep gold well bid. We are raising our gold target to $2,300/oz. We continue to expect no recession this year.
In this Insight, we continue our series of reports outlining investment frameworks for inflation-linked bonds in the developed markets, this time focusing on Japan. Our Japanese Inflation-Linked Golden Rule suggests that investors should overweight Japanese inflation-linked bonds versus nominal JGBs on a strategic (6-12 month) investment horizon. Our new Japanese inflation models suggest that there is a material risk that Japanese inflation exceeds the current level of market-based inflation expectations over the next year.