Essentials

Bank Credit Analyst

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist last year after a long and illustrious career, discusses the long-run outlook for US government debt and the possibility of an eventual crisis. Martin’s report serves as an important reminder of the unsustainable long-run trajectory of government debt and deficits, which we trust you will find both interesting and insightful.

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, we note that while recent inflation developments point to some supply-side and pandemic-related disinflation, they also point to potentially stickier inflation over the coming several months. The inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical outlook remains sufficiently risky that an overweight stance towards equities within a global multi-asset portfolio is not justified, and we continue to recommend a neutral stance for now. This month’s Section II is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist last year after a long and illustrious career, discusses the outlook for government debt and the possibility of an eventual crisis.

Bank Credit Analyst

Who will win the 2022 World Cup in Qatar? What are the important narratives around the teams? And how have major macro trends affected the world of football? Find out in the 2nd edition of the BCA FIFA World Cup Forecasts.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, we note that the Fed’s new interest rate projections show that US monetary policy is set to rise soon into restrictive territory even relative to what we consider to be the neutral rate of interest, and to a level that has been consistent with the onset of recession since the 1960s. Imminent supply-side and pandemic-related disinflation is crucial for the US to avoid a recession over the coming year. Stay neutral stocks versus bonds for now, but the next shift in our recommended asset allocation stance is more likely to be a downgrade to underweight rather than an upgrade to overweight. In Section II, a guest piece from our European Investment Strategy service discusses the outlook for European assets.

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst