Equities
Macro, fundamental, and quantitative analysis translated into actionable equity views across sectors, factors, themes, and baskets.
While there is much variability in company profitability, earnings contractions have commenced and appear to be broad-based. We expect earnings growth to deteriorate further into year-end. Companies are reporting concerns about the trajectory of future economic growth and the uncertainty that it brings. Consumer spending on goods has slowed sharply, while spending on discretionary services has surprised on the upside. Business-to-business spending is still strong.
The Fed will slow the pace of rate increases but the terminal rate will be higher than initially expected. The Fed will not pivot any time soon. Economic pain is unavoidable. Equities will bottom shortly before economic growth bottoms.
This Fed is a single mandate Fed which won’t consider the job done until inflation reaches a 2% target. Concerns about slowing growth will displace concerns about inflation. Equities will bottom shortly before economic growth bottoms. Until then we recommend a defensive portfolio tilt, and offer a few tactical and strategic ideas for the overweights.
Banks face many challenges from a slower economy and tighter financial conditions, which offset benefits from rising rates and higher net interest income. It is likely that things will get worse, a sentiment supported by many banking executives. However, negative expectations have already been priced in. We will maintain our overweight for now but will fade this position after a bounce in the next bear market rally. The long-term outlook is negative. We prefer Regional Banks to Diversified Banks.
As our clients know, we have a bearish long-term view on equities. However, we are well aware of the profitable opportunities that swift and furious bear market rallies present to nimble investors. In this short daily note, we will start by summarizing our long-term views on the market, followed by a discussion of why, in all likelihood, we are at the beginning of the next bear market rally. We will also offer a few ideas of how investors can profit from it.
We remain bearish on equities. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is embedded and perpetuated by a wage-price spiral. The Fed will “keep at it until the job is done.” Economic growth is slowing, and an earnings recession as soon as the end of this year is highly likely. US equities are not cheap and rising rates and slowing earnings growth will take their toll on performance. Don’t fight the Fed!
