Equities

Special Report

The aerospace and defense industry faces several short-term headwinds such as the defense budget standoff, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. But most of these will clear in the near term, and a relief rally is likely. Ensuing global geopolitical risks and rivalry will remain a long-term tailwind, bolstering the industry over a long-term horizon. Remain overweight.

The Q1-2023 earnings season has surprised as companies’ results point to the end of the earnings recession. However, the good news is already priced in – the market has barely budged over the past six weeks. Earnings rebound may continue as long as the economy avoids a recession. However, inevitably, tighter monetary policy will weigh on demand, and recovery will come to a halt.

Special Report

The conventional economic thinking about the likely impact of AI is misguided because it extrapolates linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. Just as the investment community and the broader public were blindsided by the exponential rise in Covid cases during the early days of the pandemic, they will be blindsided by how quickly AI transforms society and the economy.

The S&P 500 was up through 1Q23 and in April, despite the prevailing banking crisis, recession fears, and rising rates. The market is still not adequately pricing tighter monetary conditions, slowing growth, and economic uncertainty. Disappointment may be in store. We remain defensively positioned.

The Fed increased interest rates by 0.25% during its May FOMC meeting, a hike that was both well-telegraphed and widely anticipated. However, the FOMC statement and post-meeting press conference of Chairman Powell had enough for both bulls and bears to stay entrenched in their respective positions. A few bullet points below are what we heard and our take in the context of US equities.

Special Report

Drug development is a challenging business. Yet, the market is growing, and areas such as oncology and obesity present tremendous long-term opportunities. AI will accelerate drug development and reduce its costs. From a macroeconomic standpoint, Pharma tends to outperform the market when economic growth slows. While the industry group is hardly cheap, we will stay overweight thanks to its defensive characteristics, and long-term earnings potential.

In this Strategic Insight, we will summarize earnings and sales expectations, corporate guidance, and what is priced in.

Special Report

The YTD market rally was driven by outperformance of high-quality growth stocks which offer protection in uncertain times. As growth continues to slow, high-quality growth stocks should continue to do well. Hence, we are moving to overweight Growth vs. Value.

Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.

Several signs have emerged that the “bad news is good news” rally has run its course. Despite deteriorating economic data, the Fed is expected to maintain its “higher for longer” stance, disappointing the market. A rate cut is likely is only in case of a severe downturn, but that will not offer support to equities, until earnings growth bottoms. We recommend shifting a portfolio toward a defensive stance, and away from cyclicals at this juncture. We downgrade Auto to an underweight, and Capital Goods and Energy Equipment and Services to an equal weight.