The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75%....
We spent last week visiting our clients in China. In this report, we share some of the key questions from the client meetings as well as our responses....
The most important transmission mechanism of a Trump presidency on the stock market will be via its impact on the US-Japan real yield differential. This is because Japan’s extreme negative real yield versus the US is the dominant source of global liquidity right now, and thereby the main driver of s...
Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unila...
Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommended positioning for a US equity portfolio in a Red Sweep scenario. Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommended positio...
Although foreseen by our US & Geopolitical strategists, a “Red Sweep” now makes the macro environment more volatile. After convening for our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting, we offer three main takeaways. First, 2024 is not 2016. To begin with, a Trump victory is less of a surprise. Moreover, the macr...
The most likely outcomes for the US elections are a “Red Sweep” and a “Blue Gridlock.” The following is a brief discussion of likely policies associated with each election outcome. We also present a post-election US Equities Cheat Sheet, in which we summarize winning trades for each scenario over th...
Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical setting drives Japan into accommodative economic policy....
