The month of November has brought us S&P 6,000! President Trump has won a “Red Sweep” (as we expected all year) and has ushered in a regime change in America. For now, we are open to chasing momentum. However, the biggest risk to the market are bond yields, which should rise as investors start to pr...
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst ...
Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unila...
Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unila...
The market is celebrating the prospect of deregulation, lower taxes, and Fed rate cuts, for now ignoring the dangers of wider budget deficits, inflationary pressures, and trade wars. The rally can continue into the year-end and reduced uncertainty, seasonality, and positive momentum will benefit rec...
Since the end of 2021, EPS for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector has grown by 29%. In contrast, free cash flow-per-share has grown by only 11%....
We expect a copper supply-demand deficit to emerge in 2026 and widen into the end of the decade. This will provide a tailwind for copper prices over a long-term horizon. That said, we believe a better opportunity to position for a structural uptrend in copper prices will arise over the coming six-to...
The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a more opportune entry point to bet against risk assets once the electio...
The US dollar steamrolled its peers since early October. After breaking out above its 200-day moving average, it is now fast approaching recent highs. Multiple factors drove this rally, among them are the stronger-than-expected US economic data, weaker data overseas, and Trump’s victory. In the very...
In absolute terms, Chilean markets and the currency will fall given a strengthening trend in the US dollar and weak global trade. However, Chile’s economy can withstand the global trade slump relatively well due to substantial monetary easing at home, which will help Chilean markets outperform EM pe...
