Special Report

Modi and the BJP are at or near the peak of their political dominance, and their third term will be challenging as they must deal with harder reforms amidst a slowing domestic and global economic environment. In the long run, however…

German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?

In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in…

The broad market took a significant step backward in April, as market jitters gripped investors, stoking fears of higher for longer monetary policy. However, our roundtable investor poll has demonstrated that the majority remain…

MacroQuant downgraded equities from neutral to underweight on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model suggests increasing exposure to cash.

Q1 earnings results of the largest US banks have demonstrated that the engine of recent growth in profitability, NII, has faltered as funding costs are rising fast. However, the resurgence in non-NII thanks to a revival in corporate…

European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?

Special Report

This Special Report introduces a framework for assessing the relative importance of slope change and initial yield in curve trade performance. The yield penalty for curve steepeners has fallen significantly since the beginning of the…

In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.