Highlights U.S. growth will soon rebound thanks to robust drivers of domestic activity, and strengthening money and credit trends. The U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain an easing bias and will expand its balance sheet again. A…
A big driver for retail sales in the U.K. are tourist arrivals and the weaker pound is likely to keep attracting an influx of visitors. The U.K. commands many of the world’s leading brands that will benefit from a…
The U.K. has created 4.2 million new jobs over the past decade, nudging the employment-to-population ratio to the highest level in almost 50 years. Positively, full-time job creation has outpaced part-time and female…
PM Johnson had already mostly lost control of the Brexit process once Parliament decided to take the matter in its own hands. His gambit to prorogue Parliament in order to regain controlled has now backfired as the Supreme…
Highlights The U.K. economy has been holding up fairly well, despite the overhang of political uncertainty. However, even before the actual withdrawal of the U.K. from the E.U. has occurred, Brexit has left a lasting mark on the U.K.…
Highlights Global bond yields have closely tracked the trajectory of global growth. While the global economy remains fragile, some positive signs are emerging: Our global leading economic indicator has moved off its lows; global…
The only way out of the impasse is to change the parliamentary arithmetic via a snap general election. The trouble is that the outcome of such an election is near impossible to predict. This is because the U.K.’s first past…
The non-linearity of any potential U.K. election is what makes it difficult to take a high-conviction view on sterling’s direction. Instead, as soon as an election is announced, a good strategy is to buy sterling volatility…
Highlights An inevitable and imminent U.K. general election will be one of the most unpredictable and ‘non-linear’ elections ever. This non-linearity makes it difficult to take a high-conviction view on sterling’s…