Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that US economic leadership remained intact in June, despite previous signs that it was passing the global growth baton to the rest of the world. US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs…
On the surface, UK inflation appears to be on the right track. The May CPI release came in broadly within expectations. Headline inflation eased from 2.3%y/y to 2.0%y/y – directly on the BoE’s target for the first…
The US economy remains on a path towards a recession, most likely starting in late 2024 or early 2025. For now, investors should maintain a benchmark allocation to equities, but employ a barbell strategy of overweighting defensives…
The ISM Services PMI largely surpassed expectations in May. The headline index grew by 4.4 ppt to 53.8, returning to expansion following April’s one-month contraction. Double-digit jumps in new export orders (13.9 ppt) and…
Preliminary estimates suggest that manufacturing activity generally improved across DM economies in May. Manufacturing PMIs for the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK all improved from their April levels. Notably,…
US retail sales remained unchanged in April, a downside surprise from expectations of 0.4% m/m growth. Notably, the retail sales control group (an input to GDP) declined by 0.3% m/m despite expectations of mild growth and all of…
The Caixin services and composite PMIs were broadly unchanged in April. The services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.5, in line with expectations, while the composite PMI increased from 52.7 to 52.8. Details underscored positive…
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in April. The headline index fell to 49.4 from 51.4, below expectations of a faster pace of growth. April’s contraction ends a streak of 15 consecutive months of services-sector…
A few preliminary measures of German inflation for April were released on Monday. The month-on-month headline inflation measure came in at 0.5% an increase from last month’s reading of 0.4% but below expectations of 0.6%.…