Secession/Breakup
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator
China: GeoRisk Indicator…
Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity
Autocracy Hurts Productivity…
Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil
Energy Cutoff Continues (GeoRisk Update…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator
German GeoRisk Indicator…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out
Le Pen And Other Hurdles (GeoRisk Update…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-Iran talks fail, as we expect, the Middle East will…
Executive Summary The Good: There are compelling reasons to believe the Ukraine war will not break out into a broader NATO-Russia war, i.e. World War III. The Bad: The 1945 peace settlement is breaking down and the world is fundamentally less stable. Even if the Ukraine war is contained,…
Executive Summary EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist
Russia Takes Ukraine: What Next…
Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact
Ukraine Crisis Decision Tree…
HighlightsUpgrade odds of Russia invading Ukraine from 50% to 75%. The US and allies are transferring arms to Ukraine while seeking alternate energy supply for Europe.Of the 75% war risk, we give 10% odds to Russia conquering all of Ukraine, as discussed in our “Five Black Swans For 2022.” Russia’s…