Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, investors should take care not to read too much into the recent easing in financial conditions. According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (…
While efforts by policymakers to stabilize the stock market are buoying Chinese equities, domestic economic data remains soggy. Home prices declined further on both a monthly and annual basis in January, reinforcing the…
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were…
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points…
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course…
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that service sector activity is expanding across DM economies in February. Most notably, services PMIs are back at or above 50 in Australia and the Eurozone from previously contracting levels.…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, European political risk is turning up again. Increased European political risk is not because of the European parliamentary elections, which will see right-wing…
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting underscore that policymakers are adopting a cautious approach in timing the pivot to policy easing. Although Fed officials acknowledged that inflation and employment risks are “…
We rank the US spread sectors in terms of risk versus reward.