The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – decreased to 0.05 from 0.23, suggesting that the US economy cooled in June. Although the headline index surpassed…

  The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2% in June from May, marking the smallest decrease in the past three months. Year-over-year, the US LEI remained negative but less so compared to prior…

  BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report…

  BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US economy and prevented a recession in 2023. Now, many estimates of pandemic-era excess savings show that they have…

  US initial unemployment insurance claims jumped this week and are now running above levels seen at this time of year in 2023, 2019 and 2018. We choose 2023, 2019 and 2018 as our benchmarks because the unemployment rate ran…

  Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought…

  The Euro Area economy broadly surprised to the upside in the first half of 2024. Cooling inflation lifted real wages and the global late cycle amelioration benefitted the pro-cyclical Euro Area economy, but these tailwinds are…

  According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the market is overestimating the odds of a soft landing. Our colleagues’ client polls have shown that 59% of respondents expect the US economy to achieve a…

  On Monday morning, both election betting markets and financial markets reacted to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump that occurred over the weekend. Predictably, the betting odds that Trump will win the presidency in…