Dear Client, In this report, we image a hypothetical timeline of key economic and financial events spanning the next five years. The events described in the report correspond with our view that the global economy will continue to expand…
Mr. X is a long-time BCA client who visits our offices toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This year, Mr. X introduced us to his daughter, who we shall identify as Ms. X. She has many years…
Highlights The economic momentum of China's "mini-cycle" appears to have peaked earlier this year. A benign moderation in growth is the most likely outcome, but this report reviews some factors to watch over the coming…
Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will stay strong over the next 12 months, with the U.S. surprising on the upside. Unfortunately, the global economy will succumb to a recession in 2019. Stagflation will become a major problem…
Feature Dear Client, In addition to this abbreviated Weekly Report, I am sending you a Special Report written by Mark McClellan, Managing Editor of the monthly Bank Credit Analyst. Mark makes a compelling case that the deflationary…
Highlights Yellen sidesteps monetary policy at Jackson Hole. The Fed raised rates in late 1990s before seeing any inflation. Tax cut deal is still likely... ..but a prolonged debt ceiling battle or government shutdown is not.…
Highlights The cyclical recovery in global earnings will trump, so to speak, ongoing political developments. Unlike the last three recessions, which resulted from burst asset bubbles, the next U.S. recession will be more akin to those…
Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will remain strong over the next 12 months, but will start to slow in the second half of 2018, potentially setting the stage for a recession in 2019. Overall Strategy: Investors should…