On a happy personal note, I will be away on paternity leave for a short time, reacquainting myself with nappies. As such, there will be no Weekly Reports for the next two weeks, but you will receive two excellent Special Reports penned…
Dear Clients, This week we are issuing two Special Alerts on the Russo-Saudi market share war, one of which you have already received. Our weekly publication will proceed as usual on Friday, March 13. In this Special Alert, we update…
Highlights Uncertainty & Yields: Global bond yields, driven to all-time lows as investors seek safety amid rioting markets, now discount a multi-year period of very weak global growth and inflation. Bond Portfolio Strategy:…
Highlights Financial markets have experienced two weeks of wild swings: Following the negative 5-standard-deviation weekly move in the S&P 500 two weeks ago, the index moved at least 2.8% in each of last week’s first four…
Highlights Financial markets are now fully priced for an economic downturn lasting one quarter… …but they are not fully priced for a recession. To go tactically long equities versus bonds requires a high conviction that…
Feature “Bayesian: …statistical methods that assign probabilities or distributions to events…based on experience or best guesses before experimentation and data collection and that apply Bayes' theorem to revise…
Highlights We spent last week meeting with clients in South Africa, who maintained their equanimity despite the spread of the coronavirus: Maybe it was because there were not yet any reported cases close to home, but investors…
Dear Client, I participated in a webinar earlier this week with my fellow BCA Research strategists to discuss the coronavirus outbreak and other timely issues. A replay can be accessed from this link. In lieu of our regular report next…
Highlights Global growth will quickly recover if the Covid-19 outbreak is soon controlled. If the virus's spread doesn't slow, a worldwide recession will take hold in 2020. BCA remains cyclically bullish, but tactical caution…
Highlights The coronavirus is a wild card that may have a significant impact on the global economy, … : The COVID-19 outbreak is unfolding in real time, half a world away, and its ultimate course is uncertain. For now, our China…