Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year  Following last week’s sharp post-FOMC rally…

Executive Summary Reporters at last week’s post-FOMC press conference were consumed by the prospect of a recession. Their questions about the economy echoed the analysts’ on bank earnings calls and Chair Powell’s…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The Dollar Rises During Recessions  At 106.5, the dollar DXY index is certainly pricing in a recession deeper than during the Covid-19 crisis.…

The Global Investment Strategy service tactically downgraded equities in February but then upgraded them in May. The decision to upgrade equities to overweight in May was clearly premature, as stocks fell significantly in June. However…

Executive Summary Peak Fed Funds?  The bond market is priced for a fed funds rate that will peak in February 2023 at 3.44% before trending down. We survey several interest rate cycle indicators and conclude that the market…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The TIPS Market Foresees A Sharp Deceleration In Inflation  TIPS breakevens are pointing to a rapid decline in US inflation over the next two…

Executive Summary China's Unemployment   Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…

Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom benchmark index by +24bps in Q2/2022, improving the year-to-date outperformance to a solid +72bps. The Q2 outperformance came entirely from the credit side…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.