Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Counterpoint’s August schedule: Next week, I am travelling to see clients in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, so we will send you a report on China’s 20th National Party Congress written by our Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Matt Gertken. Given that the…

Executive Summary Biden Taps China-Bashing Consensus Biden's Midterm Tactics Bear Fruit… But There's A Snake…

Executive Summary Government bond yields worldwide are falling due to fears of a global recession that will lead to monetary easing in 2023. This pricing is too optimistic with inflation likely to remain well above central bank targets next year. Even…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year Investors Are Pricing In A…

Executive Summary Reporters at last week’s post-FOMC press conference were consumed by the prospect of a recession. Their questions about the economy echoed the analysts’ on bank earnings calls and Chair Powell’s answers echoed the CEOs’ and the CFOs’:…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The Dollar Rises During Recessions How Deep A Recession Is The Dollar Pricing In…

The Global Investment Strategy service tactically downgraded equities in February but then upgraded them in May. The decision to upgrade equities to overweight in May was clearly premature, as stocks fell significantly in June. However, the rally in July…

Executive Summary Peak Fed Funds? Peak Fed Funds…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial resumption of gas flows…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The TIPS Market Foresees A Sharp Deceleration In Inflation What If The TIPS Are Right…