Productivity

There is little evidence suggesting that declining productivity growth in recent years has resulted from measurement error. Businesses have plucked many of the low-hanging fruits made possible by the IT revolution, while cyclical factors stemming from the Great Recession have also weighed on productivity. Low productivity growth tends to be deflationary in the short run, but inflationary longer-term. For now, this is good news for bonds, but is likely to become bad news by decade-end.