Populism and profits don’t fit together. As we wrote last August in these pages, sky-high tech-sector profit margins will be vulnerable to policy risk as elected officials try to claw back some of that national income pie in…
Investors have been rightfully worried that populism would negatively impact international trade relations, however, populism can have domestic investment implications as well. A country’s grows national income is…
There are three levels of inequality that investors need to be familiar with in the context of populism: global, national, labor. The first level starts big, on the international stage, where economic outcomes are examined on a…
Income inequality has been one of the key drivers of the rise in populism witnessed across the globe. Today’s Insights investigate two levels of inequality and consider some policy and financial market implications. It…
Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…
Highlights President Trump has little to do with the ongoing EM selloff; The macro backdrop is the real culprit behind Turkey's woes, particularly the strong dollar... ... Which is a product of global policy divergence, with the…