Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary GIS Projection For The EUR/USD We went long the euro early last week, as EUR/USD hit our buy limit price of $0.99. Despite a near cut-off of…
Executive Summary At the margin, the European Union’s proposed €140 billion “windfall profits” tax on electricity providers not using natural gas to generate power will blunt the message markets are sending to…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become…
Executive Summary Surging Electricity, Gas Prices Will Fuel Higher Inflation Heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere are sending electricity and natgas prices through the roof, which will feed into higher inflation…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating The euro is likely to undershoot in the near term, as the winter months approach and economic volatility in Europe…
Executive Summary Russia’s Crude Oil Output Will Fall Russia will have to lower oil production to ensure output it hasn’t placed with non-EU buyers does not tax its limited storage facilities, ahead of the bloc’s…
Executive Summary EU Will Prioritize Natgas Storage Russia’s reduction in natural gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) pipeline to 20% of capacity will test the EU’s ability to keep the lights on…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…