Analysis on Mexico and Central Europe is available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Highlights Deflationary pressures have been intensifying in Malaysia and the central bank will be forced to cut its policy rate. To play this theme,…
Chart II-1Malaysian Stocks Relative To EM Malaysian equities have been underperforming their EM counterparts since 2013 and are now resting around their 2017 lows (Chart II-1). The odds are high that this market’s…
Highlights Odds are that the recent improvement in Chinese manufacturing PMIs could be due to inventory re-stocking rather than a decisive turnaround in final demand. “Hard” data have not shown meaningful improvements in…
Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would…
Odds are that a structural bottom in this bourse’s relative performance versus the EM index may have been reached. Hence, our emerging markets strategists are putting Malaysian equities on our upgrade watch list while…
Highlights On the bright side, Malaysia’s structural backdrop is improving notably, especially in the semiconductors segment. Yet the cyclical growth outlook remains downbeat. While we are maintaining a market-weight allocation…
We published a Special Alert report titled Turkey: Book Profits On Shorts yesterday. The link is available on page 18. This report is Part 2 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts…
Highlights So long as EM corporate and sovereign bond yields continue to rise, EM share prices will remain in a downtrend. EM corporate earnings growth has peaked while EM corporate profitability remains structurally weak. We…