Executive Summary Will The War Stall The Expected Downturn In Inflation This Year? The Russia/Ukraine conflict is impacting financial markets across numerous channels – uncertainty, risk aversion, growth expectations…
Executive Summary Upgrade Global Duration Exposure To Neutral The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a stagflationary shock that comes at a difficult time for developed market central banks that have been laying the groundwork…
Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…
Executive Summary Lots Of Pent-Up Demand The yen is unlikely to meaningfully appreciate until global bond yields stabilize. That said, very cheap valuations and a large net short position provide ample ammunition for an…
Feature This week, we present the third edition of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) Global Credit Conditions Chartbook – a review of central bank surveys of bank lending standards and loan demand. The data from…
After expanding by a rapid pace in early 2021, the annual growth rate of Japanese machine tool orders peaked at a stunning 142% y/y last May and have since been decelerating. More recently, they jumped 61.4% y/y in January,…
Inflation has risen sharply around the world, forcing central banks to bring forward the removal of policy accommodation and move towards policy normalization. One jarring exception to this trend is Japan where inflation remains…
BCA Research is proud to announce a new feature to help clients get the most out of our research: an Executive Summary cover page on each of the BCA Research Reports. We created these summaries to help you quickly capture the main points…
Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…