Italy
Highlights Trump's agenda has not derailed ... at least not yet; Europe remains a red herring ... as the Dutch showed; Turkey cannot restart Europe's immigration crisis; Supply-side reforms are still likely in France; The ECB will remain dovish for longer than expected; EUR/USD may rise in…
Highlights Nothing in Trump's congressional address changes our outlook from November; Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to mercantilism; Investors should continue to favor small caps over large caps; We expect Trump to get his way on more spending, and a tax reform plan to pass by the end…
Highlights Markets are facing large tail risks - both negative and positive; Donald Trump is a "Fat-Tail" president; European politics offer both a right-tail risk - German Europhile turn ... ... And a left-tail risk - Italian election and a shock in France; Investors should turn to the…
Highlights European populism is a red herring in 2017; France is a buy, Le Pen is overrated; Merkel's demise would be an opportunity, not a risk; Yet Italy poses a real risk - elections will be crucial; Moreover, Euro breakup risk is rising over the long run. Feature Clients are nervous…
Highlights Global competitiveness equalisation occurs: For Germany, at EUR/USD = 1.35 For the Euro area, at EUR/USD = 1.20 For Spain, at EUR/USD = 1.17 For France, at EUR/USD = 1.15 For Italy, at EUR/USD = 1.10 But today EUR/USD = 1.07. The main culprit for the over-competitive euro is…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical opportunities. Meanwhile, our regular…
Highlights The valuation discount on Italian banks still seems insufficient for the sector's excess NPLs. We expect a better long-term buying opportunity sometime next year. Stay underweight the MIB and IBEX versus the Eurostoxx600. Stay underweight the Eurostoxx600 versus the S&P500.…
Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get in a shooting war; Position for an inflation comeback; Go…
Highlights ECB Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) bought time for Euro Area inflation to sustainably move higher by extending the duration, and removing some of the self-imposed limits, on its bond buying program. The higher aggregate amount of monetary stimulus to be delivered in 2017 was…