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Inflation/Deflation

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Vietnam: Is The Cyclical Downturn Over?

Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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Year-End Chartbook

Our last publication of 2023 is an illustrated guide to our view that the economy will enter a recession around midyear. We expect equities will underperform Treasuries and cash over much of 2024, but we are waiting to turn tactically defensive until more investors are drawn into the soft-landing camp, capping the equity rally.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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2024 Key Views: Europe In Recession

Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
ECB Leans Against Rate Cut Expectations
As expected, the ECB kept its policy rate unchanged on Thursday. In the updated macroeconomic projections, the central bank revised down its inflation and growth forecasts for next year. It now expects inflation to ease to 2.7% in 2024 – 0.5 percentage…
Daily Insights
Goldilocks? Or The Two Bears?
The November US retail sales release for November delivered a positive signal about consumer spending. Overall retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.3% m/m, surprising expectations of a 0.1% m/m decline. The details of the report were also favorable. Eight…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Will EM Cross The Rubicon?

The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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The Fed Pivot Is On For 2024

Our US bond team’s thoughts on this afternoon’s FOMC meeting and yesterday’s CPI release.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Disinflation Trend Will Continue In 2024
The November US CPI release came in broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday. On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation eased from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y while core inflation was unchanged at 4.0% y/y. On a monthly basis, both headline and core…
Daily Insights
Deflationary Pressures Linger In China
China’s CPI and PPI releases delivered a negative signal about the domestic economy. The rate of contraction in the CPI index accelerated to -0.5% y/y in November, the sharpest rate of decline in 3 years and disappointing expectations it would remain at -0.2%…
Daily Insights
Elevated Inflation Uncertainty Will Keep Policymakers Cautious
Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point drop in one-year ahead inflation…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics