Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys
Highlights Inflation Breakeven Trades: We are taking profits on our recommended inflation breakeven widening trades in Italy and Canada, as breakevens in both countries are no longer below the fair values implied by our models. We are initiating a new…
Please note that there will be no US Bond Strategy report next week. We will publish December’s Portfolio Allocation Summary on December 8th, followed by our Key Views For 2021 on December 15th and a Special Report titled “The Fed In 2021” on December 22nd…
Highlights COVID-19: Markets are trading off the longer-term positive news on COVID-19 vaccines, rather than the shorter-term negative news of surging numbers of new virus cases in Europe and North America. This will continue as long as the vaccine…
Highlights The vaccine promises an eventual return to “normal” life – just as Americans voted to “return to normalcy.” Markets are cheering and hinting at an eventual rotation into value stocks. The contested US election can still cause volatility even…
Highlights US Election & COVID-19: Joe Biden’s apparent victory in the US presidential race, as well as the announcement of a potential successful COVID-19 vaccine trial, are both bond-bearish outcomes. This is especially so for US Treasuries given…
Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields Have Upside In A Blue Sweep
Bond Yields Have Upside In A Blue Sweep…
Your feedback is important to us. Please take our client survey today. Highlights US Election & Duration: We estimate that there is an 80% probability of a US election result that will give a lift to US Treasury yields via increased fiscal stimulus.…
Your feedback is important to us. Please take our client survey today. Highlights Duration: The Fed’s adoption of an Average Inflation Target and the emerging correlation between bond yields and a “blue sweep” election outcome were the two main catalysts…
Highlights Global Duration: US Treasury yields have started to creep higher and the move is likely to continue in the coming months regardless of who wins the White House. Reduce overall global duration exposure to below-benchmark, focused on the US.…
Highlights US Election & Duration: We estimate that there is an 80% probability of a US election result that will give a lift to US Treasury yields via increased fiscal stimulus. Those are strong enough odds to justify a move to a below-benchmark…