Fiscal

Highlights The combined U.S. current account and fiscal deficits are set to rise as Trump's profligacy and higher interest rates kick in. In and of itself, this does not spell doom for the dollar. The Fed's response to the twin deficit is what will…

Highlights The financial landscape has shifted over the past month with the arrival of some inflation 'green shoots' and a major shift in U.S. fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is shaping up to be a major source of demand and a possible headache for the FOMC…

Highlights Economy: The Italian economy is enjoying a solid, if unspectacular, cyclical upturn led by exports, but inflation pressures remain subdued. Banks: The health of Italian banks has improved drastically over the last year, with liquidity,…

Highlights The best recession indicators are not flashing red, but volatility is rising as the end of the cycle approaches; U.S. fiscal policy is surprising to the upside, as we expected; The next recession will usher in an inflationary political…

Highlights Japan's reflationary economic policies will be reinforced ahead of the constitutional referendum; The Bank of Japan is a long way from a 2% inflation overshoot; Fiscal thrust will continue to surprise to the upside; Wage law revisions are…

Highlights The dollar seems to have entered a cyclical bear market, which suggests that EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. While the euro performs well in the late stages of the business cycle, it has moved ahead of long-term fundamentals. A…

Highlights Controversial gaffes aside, President Trump has started 2018 by moving to the middle; This comes at a time when animal spirits are reawakening thanks to tax cuts; And the path of least resistance for fiscal policy points towards more…

Highlights Question #1: Will global growth remain above trend? Yes. Question #2: Will growth continue to outperform outside the U.S.? No. Question #3: Will productivity growth pick up? Yes, but only cyclically. The structural outlook remains bleak.…

Feature It has been a Geopolitical Strategy tradition, since our launch in 2012, to include our best and worst forecasts of the year in our end-of-year Strategic Outlook monthly reports.1 Since we have switched over to a weekly publication schedule, we are…

Feature It has been a Geopolitical Strategy tradition, since our launch in 2012, to include our best and worst forecasts of the year in our end-of-year Strategic Outlook monthly reports.1 Since we have switched over to a weekly publication schedule, we are…