Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…
Highlights Analysis on the Chinese property market is available below. In the Philippines, domestic demand is set to accelerate at the hands of the government’s fiscal boost. The current account deficit will widen and the peso…
Feature We spent the past two weeks visiting and exchanging views with our clients in Asia. We presented our view that the ongoing stimulus measures are beginning to bear fruit in terms of stabilizing China’s economic activity, and…
Martin Barnes and I spent last week visiting clients in Hong Kong and Singapore in celebration of BCA’s 70th anniversary. Martin has been with BCA Research for 32 years and has been a keen observer of market trends for much longer…
The Fed has been describing the economic outlook for most of the year as an economy whose baseline outlook is favorable but faces some downside risks. While that outlook doesn’t immediately suggest a policy…
With the global manufacturing & trade downturn now threatening to spill over into domestic demand in the major advanced economies, policymakers will need to stay dovish to stave off a recession. This will keep global bond…
The late-1990s and the 2015/16 periods are appropriate comparables for today’s global growth slowdown. The current spate of weakness will stay confined within the manufacturing sector and will not spread into the broader…
The “hard” economic data paints a much rosier picture that the “soft” survey data. Industrial production has already bounced off its lows and, unlike the ISM Manufacturing PMI, has not yet approached 2015/…