Following an emergency meeting on Wednesday, the ECB pledged to “apply flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio” and “accelerate the completion of the design of a new anti-…
European peripheral bond spreads have continued to widen since the conclusion of last week’s ECB meeting. The Governing Council’s focus on taming inflationary pressures raises risks to the Eurozone economic growth…
The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in April for the second consecutive month. GDP fell 0.3% m/m following a 1% m/m decline in March, disappointing expectations of a 0.1% m/m increase. Service sector activity was the…
Executive Summary ECB & Inflation: Whatever It Takes? Inflation is the European Central Bank’s single focus. This single-mindedness heightens the risks to Euro Area growth, especially because wider peripheral…
The ECB’s June Monetary Policy Statement started with “high inflation is a major challenge for all of us. The Governing Council will make sure that inflation returns to our two percent target over the medium term.…
Executive Summary Natural Gas Markets Eerily Quiet An eerie calm in European natural gas markets belies the state of war in Ukraine that already is producing a cutoff of Russian natgas supplies in retaliation for the EU…
Executive Summary The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is flawed. This Holy Grail of financial economics assumes that investors are a homogenous bunch with identical investment horizons, when the reality is that investors have a wide…
Executive Summary Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields Bond yields in the developed world have ticked higher recently, due to a renewed increase in oil prices and the spillover effect from more hawkish policy expectations…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, global activity will not find a durable bottom until inflation peaks, which implies that the market must see a stabilization in energy prices first. Thus, Q2…
Several ECB hawks – Robert Holzmann, Martins Kazaks, and Klaas Knot – have recently entertained the possibility of a jumbo 50bp rate hike this year. Data released last week shows that inflationary pressures…