The “cost of living crisis” is weighing down on UK consumers. The volume of total retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m in May, and the measure that excludes auto fuel declined by a greater magnitude of 0.7% m/m. Consumer…
Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…
The primary macroeconomic problem the world currently faces is containing rising inflation, especially the kind that is supply-side driven. This problem has become particularly acute in recent months since both equity and bond…
Economic data in the Eurozone continues to soften. Preliminary estimates indicated that the EC Consumer Confidence deteriorated further in June, despite expectations it would improve. Sentiment among Euro Area consumers declined…
Executive Summary At our monthly view meeting on Monday, BCA strategists voted to change the House View to a neutral asset allocation stance on equities, with a slight plurality favoring an outright underweight. The…
Executive Summary Structural Tailwinds For The Franc Volatility in FX markets is likely to remain elevated, as witnessed by the reaction of a full circle of central bank meetings this week.Policy convergence remains a good bet for…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Higher Real Yields Have Weighed On Equity Valuations I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi last week.…
The Swiss National Bank lifted its policy rate by 50bps to -0.25% on Thursday, surprising expectations that it would stand pat and marking its first rate hike in 15 years. In addition, the post-meeting statement noted that…
Executive Summary Economic growth is now a casualty, and not a driver, of monetary policy choices. Inflation is dictating where central banks are taking interest rates. Our baseline view remains that core US inflation will…