As of Thursday’s close, the 2-year/10-year US Treasury curve is inverted, with the 10-year yield trading -35bps below the 2-year yield. In Europe, there is no inversion, with the 10-year German yield trading 37bps…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating The euro is likely to undershoot in the near term, as the winter months approach and economic volatility in Europe…
Executive Summary Russia’s Crude Oil Output Will Fall Russia will have to lower oil production to ensure output it hasn’t placed with non-EU buyers does not tax its limited storage facilities, ahead of the bloc’s…
The July UK CPI data released on Wednesday showed an acceleration of year-over-year headline inflation into double-digit territory at 10.1%, up from 9.4% in June and beating market expectations. Higher food and energy prices were…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the risk of deflation is greater than investors currently appreciate, which would be especially painful for European equities. European equities are more…
Executive Summary Then And Now Investors are fixated on inflation; for now, the peak in US CPI is a positive for global stocks. However, this tailwind could easily transform into fear if inflation becomes deflation. The…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support The softer CPI print in the US boosted growth plays and pushed the DXY index below…
Executive Summary Oil Markets Remain Tight US and Iranian negotiators received an EU proposal for reviving the Iran nuclear deal on Monday, which could return ~ 1mm b/d of oil to markets. The EU’s embargo of…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Euro And The Chinese Credit Impulse The US dollar has bounced off its 50-day moving average. In the recent past, that had led to a period…