Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary GIS Projection For The EUR/USD We went long the euro early last week, as EUR/USD hit our buy limit price of $0.99. Despite a near cut-off of…
Executive Summary At the margin, the European Union’s proposed €140 billion “windfall profits” tax on electricity providers not using natural gas to generate power will blunt the message markets are sending to…
Eurozone industrial production contracted by a larger-than-expected 2.3% m/m in July following a 1.1% increase in June. Capital goods and durable consumer goods led the July decline. Going forward, the outlook for the European…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent a cautionary signal on Tuesday. German investor sentiment slumped in September to the lowest level in 14 years. The current situation and expectations indices dropped by 6.6 and 12.9…
UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m in July, up from June’s 0.6% m/m decline. A 0.4% m/m increase in services was the main contributor, though production and construction fell 0.3% and 0.8% m/m, respectively. However, July’s GDP…
Last Thursday, the ECB raised the deposit rate by 75bps to 0.75% – in line with market expectations. The revised economic projections include an increase to the inflation forecasts with an average inflation rate of 8.1%…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become…
Next week, on September 7-8, is the BCA New York Conference, the first in-person version since 2019. I look forward to seeing many of you there, and if you haven’t already booked your place, you still can! (a virtual version is also…