Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary US Financial Conditions Have Tightened Significantly This Year US financial conditions have tightened by enough that the Fed no…
Executive Summary EU Surprises Carbon Market With Increased CO2 Emission Allowance Supply The EU's failed foreign policy – premised on ever-deeper engagement with the Soviet Union and, after it collapsed, Russia…
Highlights The economic and financial market developments that have occurred over the past month are consistent with several of the risks that we identified in our recent reports. We warned in our April report that the outlook for…
ECB President Christine Lagarde provided a clear signal that Eurozone policymakers are preparing to start raising interest rates this summer. In a blog post that was published on Monday, she wrote that “even when supply…
Executive Summary Villains Still Lurking European assets and the euro already discount a significant worsening of Europe’s economic outlook. If the global economic situation were to stabilize, then European assets…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary EUR/JPY And The DXY: Unsustainable Gap Three interrelated themes are likely to play out by the end of 2022 – peak Fed hawkishness,…
Global growth headwinds have increased since the start of the year. Commodity prices have soared on the back of the war in Ukraine. The Eurozone’s near-term economic outlook has dimmed and is at risk of a more severe…
Executive Summary Loss Of Russian Production Will Lift Brent With German imports of Russian oil close to 10% of its total requirements – following an impressive decline from 35% pre-invasion – we expect the EU to…
After breaking below 1.05 last week, EUR/USD has recently been strengthening. Interestingly, this recovery is occurring amid heightened geopolitical tensions and growth concerns. The odds of an EU embargo on Russian oil have…