Equities
We do not expect Russia and OPEC members to reach a production-limiting agreement at the April 17 meeting in Doha, but that does not diminish our bullish expectations for a rebalancing of oil markets in H2 2016.
The previous Insight showed that macro forces were shifting in favor of a trough in the brutal backdrop for hypermarkets sales. Even if the latter are slow to recover, there is scope for positive profit margin surprises in the coming quarters. The massive U.S. dollar appreciation has invigorated the retailing industry's largest buying group's purchasing power. It would be highly unusual for operating margins not to expand on the back of currency strength. Keep in mind that varying lags exist between currency swings and their impact on profitability, given long-term contracts and hedges. Consequently, the recent currency depreciation does not mean the window for margin improvement has closed. Other sources of reduced cost inflation exist. For instance, the cost of goods sold should benefit from deflation in transportation costs. Asian manufacturers are also in full inventory liquidation mode, which suggests little upward pressure on imported consumer goods prices, despite the recent U.S. dollar dip. These factors will support margins. Adding it all up, on a cyclical basis, hypermarkets are well positioned to produce better-than-market returns and we recommend upping weightings to above-benchmark on price weakness. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HYPC - WMT, COST.
Hypermarkets are off their relative performance lows, despite the rebound in the broad market. That is a solid showing for a defensive industry that has been in the doldrums for more than three years. It is easy to understand why underperformance has been so stark. Sales growth has been abysmal. Deflation has rocked the retailing sector. It is hard for earnings to grow sustainably without sales gains, particularly in a low margin, high turnover business. But there are signs that the worst is over. Retail deflation has passed through its most intense phase. The pickup in overall income growth suggests that the average consumer will have more disposable income, which has often been a reliable indication of sales and profit turning points. When the personal savings rate rises and overall consumption growth cools, hypermarkets benefit (top and bottom panels). Fading federal income tax growth reinforces that consumers are unlikely to soon 'trade up' to shop at higher ticket stores (middle panel, taxes shown inverted). Even if sales growth is slow to regain traction, hypermarkets have room to improve profitability, please see the next Insight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HYPC - WMT, COST.
A lack of confirming growth indicators puts the equity advance at risk. Lift hypermarkets to overweight, stick with homebuilders and fade any small and/or mid cap relative strength.
We are confident that the reward/risk tradeoff to holding equities and high-yield corporate bonds is deteriorating and that rallies in these assets are high-risk affairs.
The previous Insight showed that capital formation has hit a brick wall as a consequence of ebbing risk tolerance. That is robbing the corporate sector of much needed growth capital, and will reinforce the need for retrenchment. As a result, the outlook for capital market profitability is bearish. To make matters worse, capital markets firms have been slow to downsize this cycle. Usually headcount is quick to react to slumping revenue, as a shrinking bonus pool necessitates fewer employees. However, capital markets employment growth has not yet started to contract, warning that revenue disappointment will be compounded on the bottom line. While net earnings revisions are negative, earnings are still expected to outpace those of the broad market in the coming twelve months, which is far too optimistic in the absence of resurgent economic confidence. We expect the S&P capital markets index to sink to new relative performance lows. Stay with a high-conviction underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CAPM - GS, BLK, BK, MS, SCHW, STT, TROW, AMP, BEN, NTRS, IVZ, AMG, ETFC, LM.
Last year's sharp tightening in financial conditions is wreaking havoc on the S&P capital markets index. Capital formation has dried up, and the persistent erosion in economic expectations, as measured by the total return ratio of stocks-to-bonds (S/B), warns of little chance for an imminent recovery. The chart shows that new stock issuance is probing the low end of the range, while M&A activity is cooling quickly. The S/B ratio provides a good indication of investor risk appetites, and the current message is that risk tolerance is ebbing. That will constrain the availability of capital, and dent fees for capital markets firms. Tack on historically low trading volumes, and profit prospects darken another notch. Against this backdrop, the only way to preserve profitability is through massive cost cutting, see the next Insight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CAPM - GS, BLK, BK, MS, SCHW, STT, TROW, AMP, BEN, NTRS, IVZ, AMG, ETFC, LM.
Gold seems to be leading global share prices. Gold prices have rolled over since March 10. Hence, odds are that the U.S. dollar is about to bottom, and that global and EM stocks, as well as commodities prices, are about to relapse. We recommend two new trades in central Europe: Go long central European banks / short euro area banks and buy 10-year Polish domestic bonds.
The ultimate driver of bank profitability is loan growth. A brighter economic backdrop in the U.S. compared with both the euro area and Japan paints a rosier picture for relative credit growth opportunities (third panel). Already, bank credit growth in the U.S. is outpacing Japan and the euro area (top panel). This divergence has staying power, given that the U.S. economic expansion is becoming self-reinforcing, while the export-dependent euro area and Japan remain fragile. While loan volume generation is a key profit center for banks, loan pricing is equally important. On this front, negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in both the euro area and Japan are worrisome. NIRP puts an interest rate floor on deposit taking institutions that are reluctant to pass negative deposit rates onto their customers. Concurrently, NIRP forces banks to lend out new money, or roll over existing loans, at declining interest rates. This is especially constraining in the euro area periphery where mortgage lending is financed at the very short-end of the curve. The end result is a net interest margin squeeze (bottom panel). Meanwhile, each country is in a different phase of its credit cycle. U.S. and Japanese NPLs are probing multi-year lows, whereas euro area NPLs are very elevated (second panel). Tight labor markets in both the U.S. and Japan argue for a continuation of the downtrend in NPLs, although the rise in corporate bond spreads suggests that business loans are more at risk. The euro area's double-digit unemployment rate warns that NPLs will sap European bank profitability for a while longer. Bottom Line: U.S. financials are the best of a bad lot, while euro area and Japanese financials will continue to struggle to keep pace with broad market returns. For additional information on global financials please refer to the March 18 Global Alpha Sector Strategy report titled "Happy Days?".
Bank stocks comprise the bulk of financials indexes' market cap weights in the G3 (U.S., Euro Area and Japan). Thus, bank profit growth should largely define each region's financials sector earnings path, and by extension, relative performance. The top panel of the chart shows that the euro area and Japan have massive banking sectors as a percentage of GDP, especially compared with the U.S. Bank deleveraging is ongoing in the euro area, as banks continue to retrench from emerging markets and because of domestic economic slack. Sustained asset shedding in Europe is inherently negative for bank profitability, at least in the near-term, as bankers simultaneously become more conservative and reluctant to extend credit. Moreover, bank leverage ratios are stretched in Japan and in the euro area versus the U.S. (second panel). In other words, the equity capital cushion remains insufficient in the euro area and in Japan to absorb a local or global credit shock. U.S. banks are well capitalized following the Great Recession TARP recapitalization, but euro area banks continue to be plagued by ongoing and extremely dilutive equity capital raisings. Worrisomely, despite sporting higher leverage ratios, both Japanese and euro area financials ROEs trail the U.S. by a wide and rising margin (bottom panel). Steeply diverging regional ROEs should continue to drive a relative rerating of U.S. financials versus both euro area and Japanese financials (see the bottom panel of the previous Insight). Meanwhile, diverging credit and economic growth profiles, NIMs and NPLs, all favor U.S. versus both European and Japanese financials (please see the next Insight).