Expect the Middle East to create new and unexpected energy supply disruptions on top of the Russian energy shock.
China's economy is about to experience demand-driven deflation. The lack of an economic recovery and falling producer prices will depress corporate profits and, hence, share prices. Beijing will allow the yuan to depreciate more to…
On Monday, investors cheered former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (Lula) victory over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election held over the weekend. However,…
The Chinese manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics contracted anew in October, after briefly improving above the 50 boom-bust line in September. The headline index decreased from 50.1 to 49.2, missing…
Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.
Chinese industrial profit growth continues to shrink, down 2.3% ytd y/y in the first three quarters of 2022. The weakness is particularly pronounced among downstream sectors. Profits of manufacturers contracted by 13.2% ytd y/…
According to our Emerging Markets strategists, Hungarian 10-year domestic bonds offer a good medium-term investment opportunity. The team believes that Hungarian growth has already peaked and is headed towards a recession.…
We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, messages from the Party Congress suggest that China’s policymakers will continue to balance the trade-offs between short-term economic growth, socio-…
The 20th Communist Party Congress concluded on Sunday with President Xi Jinping cementing his third term in office. We are maintaining our cautious stance on Chinese stocks and the exchange rate. The lack of a significant shift away…