Emerging Markets
US financial conditions have become noticeably easier since August. The Fed has embarked on its easing cycle with a bang, sending equities higher and spreads lower, while the trade-weighted dollar gave back more than half of its year-to-date gains. The…
September’s Chinese PMIs were uninspiring. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dipped into contraction territory (50.4 to 49.3) despite expectations it would modestly improve. The alternative NBS manufacturing PMI improved from 49.1 to 49.8, above expectations,…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy service, the monetary and fiscal policies announced last week are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China. Below are actions the authorities need to undertake for our colleagues to…
We highlighted last week that while the Politburo policy announcements are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China, they nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline to investor sentiment. Chinese equities, China-plays and other…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still vague, it adopts a much more pragmatic tone…
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.
This week has not been short of developments on Chinese policy. After unleashing a monetary policy blitz, the authorities held an unscheduled Politburo meeting resulting in a pledge to take actions towards stabilizing the housing market and to support fiscal…
China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service introduced a Global Political Capital Index. Investors should favor countries with newly elected government, small government size, and ample room to cut policy rate. Ideally, they should also be in a stable…