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Economy

Lower Path Of Least Resistance For Oil Prices
The decline in oil prices accelerated this month. Although Wednesday’s moves reversed Tuesday’s sharp daily declines, Brent and WTI have fallen 11% and 10% so far in September, and 30% and 33% from their April peaks. Deteriorating demand likely drove these…
Daily Insights
Global Equities Will Lag Bonds
Despite global bond yields having trended lower since April, bonds have only started outperforming equities since July in US dollar terms. We expect this outperformance to persist going forward. Sentiment has largely driven the equity market rally this…
Daily Insights
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Nothing To See Here

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.

US Bond Strategy by Robert Timper
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Trump Still Has A Path

Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that the election will be close. The race is still competitive and policy uncertainty and volatility will be elevated.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Waiting For The (Policy) Shoe To Drop

Both the Chinese and US central banks will likely take policy actions in the coming weeks. What is the potential impact of a mortgage rate cut on China’s household consumption and the broader economy? Will the anticipated Fed easing cycle further lift the RMB exchange rate versus the US dollar?

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
The Surge In Chinese Exports Is Likely Unsustainable
Chinese export growth in USD terms accelerated from 7.0% y/y to a larger-than-expected 8.7% in August. China’s exports to its major trading partners (US, EU and ASEAN) were all growing in August on a year-on-year basis, though at a decelerating pace in the US…
Daily Insights
Credit Likely Drove July’s US Retail Sales
Consumer credit rose by USD 25.5bn in July (to USD 5,093.7 bn outstanding), more than twice the expected growth. However, revisions suggest that June’s consumer credit growth was slower than initially reported (USD 8.9bn to 5.2bn). Nonrevolving credit…
Daily Insights
US Small Business Optimism Unexpectedly Declined In August
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
Daily Insights
UK Wage Growth Decelerates
The BoE embarked on its easing cycle in August, delivering its first 25 bps rate cut. The decision was nowhere near unanimous, with 5 MPCs out of 9 voting in favor of lowering policy rates. Indeed, while headline inflation is sitting right on the central…
Daily Insights
Private Equity & Sports
Private Equity & Sports Private…
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