Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…
Highlights Our three strategic themes over the long run: (1) great power rivalry (2) hypo-globalization (3) populism and nationalism. The implications are inflationary over the long run. Nations that gear up for potential conflict and…
Highlights Fed: The Fed is embroiled in a debate about whether to move more quickly toward rate hikes. Our expectation is that the Fed will remain relatively dovish unless 5-year/5-year forward inflation expectations show signs of…
Rising inflationary pressures are seeping into Aussie inflation expectations which according to the Melbourne Institute reached 4.6% in November. Nevertheless, the RBA pushed back against market rate hike expectations at last…
Highlights Increasing consumption should be a lot easier than increasing savings. After all, most people like to spend! It is getting them to work that should be challenging. Yet, the conventional wisdom is that deflation is a much…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service fiscal drag is probably overstated as governments are likely to increase deficit spending on the margin. US Congress is likely to pass Biden’s $550 billion bipartisan…