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Special Report Executive Summary Definitions Matter  Year-to-date, cyclical stocks have underperformed their defensive counterparts. It is difficult to quantify this underperformance precisely considering the divergence in definitions of…
Executive Summary Then And Now  Investors are fixated on inflation; for now, the peak in US CPI is a positive for global stocks. However, this tailwind could easily transform into fear if inflation becomes deflation. The…
Special Report Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from…
S&P 500 Chart 1Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart 2Profitability  Chart 3Valuations And Technicals  Chart 4Uses Of Cash  Cyclicals Vs Defensives Chart 5Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart…
Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host the monthly Counterpoint Webcast on Monday, July 25. Please mark the date in your calendar, and I do hope you can join. Executive Summary Central banks face a ‘Sophie’s…
Executive Summary Buying a home is now more expensive than renting in many parts of the world. In the US and UK, disappearing homebuyers combined with a flood of home-sellers will weigh on home prices over the next 6-12 months.…
Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas  Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…
Executive Summary Structural Tailwinds For The Franc  Volatility in FX markets is likely to remain elevated, as witnessed by the reaction of a full circle of central bank meetings this week.Policy convergence remains a good bet for…
Special Report Executive Summary Structural Tailwinds For The Franc  Volatility in FX markets is likely to remain elevated, as witnessed by the reaction of a full circle of central bank meetings this week. Policy convergence remains a good…