Cyclicals vs Defensives

Executive Summary Definitions Matter Definitions Matter…

Executive Summary Then And Now Then And Now…

Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from the Russian war in Ukraine alone. The world is playing “Russian…

S&P 500 Chart 1Macroeconomic Backdrop Macroeconomic Backdrop…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial resumption of gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, along…

In lieu of next week’s report, I will host the monthly Counterpoint Webcast on Monday, July 25. Please mark the date in your calendar, and I do hope you can join. Executive Summary Central banks face a ‘Sophie’s choice’. Inflation at 2 percent, or full employment? If they choose inflation at 2…

Executive Summary Buying a home is now more expensive than renting in many parts of the world. In the US and UK, disappearing homebuyers combined with a flood of home-sellers will weigh on home prices over the next 6-12 months. Falling employment and falling house prices risk becoming a self-…

Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas…

Executive Summary Structural Tailwinds For The Franc Structural Tailwinds For The Franc…

Executive Summary Structural Tailwinds For The Franc Structural Tailwinds For The Franc…