The Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its September meeting and signaled low odds of policy easing before the first quarter of 2025. The inflation backdrop does not warrant easing policy. Although core CPI…
Canadian retail sales grew by a higher-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July from a 0.2% contraction in June. A 2.2% monthly rise in vehicle sales led an otherwise broad-based increase. Ex-auto retail sales also surprised positively,…
Stress among lower-income households is often cited as an early indication of deteriorating aggregate consumer fundamentals. The data indeed suggests that this cohort’s cash holdings are depleting. However, the Fed…
Stocks are a forward discounting mechanism and routinely top before recessions begin, even if they typically do not swoon until the recession has taken hold. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, if…
US retail sales grew 0.1% m/m in August and beat expectations of a 0.2% monthly contraction. The positive surprise seemingly spurred equity market gains on Tuesday morning. However, details do not paint as rosy a…
The Chinese economic data in its totality was uninspiring in August. Industrial production and retail sales growth decelerated year-on-year and corroborate the message from August’s import and credit growth data that…
Preliminary estimates suggest that consumer sentiment improved in September. The headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased from 67.9 to a higher-than-projected 68.5. Both the current conditions and…