The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China,…
China’s exports in USD terms surged 7.6% y/y in May, from 1.5% in April, surpassing expectations of a 5.7% gain. However, base effects largely overstate the strength of Chinese exports given that they contracted by 8% y/…
The Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI reached a two-year high in May, expanding at a larger-than-expected rate from 51.4 to 51.7. The Caixin figure thus contrasts with the alternative NBS manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly…
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.
Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disappointed in May. The manufacturing PMI contracted in May (49.5), breaking a two-month expansion streak and disappointing expectations of continued growth. Meanwhile…
As in many other countries, China’s cyclical consumption growth is primarily driven by labor market conditions, income, and borrowing. BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service maintains the view that these…
In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and…