BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service remains tactically neutral with a defensive cyclical bias. The team is resisting the impulse to turn prematurely defensive ahead of the coming recession. Our colleagues…
Emerging market debt is typically thought of as a cyclical asset. When risk assets sell off and the dollar rises, this asset class has historically suffered. However, there are some signs that the risk-on nature of EM debt has…
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest…
Gold spot prices have returned a whopping 25% YTD, with the bulk of this performance having occurred in the last three months. Interestingly, these gains have occurred despite the rise in real yields, with which they are…
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) disappointed in May, contracting 0.5% m/m from a 0.6% decline in April. However, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) grew 0.4% m/m in May. Year-on-year contractions in…
The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates from 5% to 4.75% in June and another rate cut in July would be warranted. Tight monetary policy is impacting the labor market. The unemployment rate (6.1%) has been on an uptrend…
In its latest Special Report, BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service considers the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-…
Japanese exports in JPY increased from 8.3% y/y to 13.5% in May, surpassing expectations of 12.7%. 23.9% and 17.8% y/y growth in exports to the US and China, respectively, led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian export-…
US retail sales were mostly unchanged, growing by a mere 0.1% m/m in May, short of the expected 0.3% monthly increase. A 2.2% m/m decline in gasoline stations’ sales weighed on the overall result, though retail sales…
Chinese retail sales grew 3.7% y/y in May, from 2.3% in April, upending expectations of a more muted 3.0% increase. The government appliance trade-in program has likely boosted these figures. Sales of home-related goods such…