Technology
Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal spending is unlikely to create an impetus for another leg up in equity performance.
This Special Report is a timely reprise of a speech that I gave at the London School of Economics on our understanding and misunderstanding of generative AI. In neurological terms, generative AI has a ‘super-neocortex’ which means that it can thrash humans in abstract thinking, or IQ. But crucially, generative AI does not have a ‘limbic system’ which means that it will lag well behind humans in emotional intelligence, or EQ. I hope you find the speech insightful and provocative, especially on how we might have completely misunderstood human intelligence and super-intelligence, and the economic and societal implications for the coming decade.
Outperformance of Growth sectors most likely has run its course. It is time to shift Growth vs. Value allocation to neutral, downgrade Semis, and upgrade Energy to overweight.
We recommend a small structural exposure to cryptocurrencies and blockchain tokens, given their incipient real-world uses as well as their proven hedging qualities against the debasement of fiat money and in banking crises. In this Special Report, we rank the major blockchains on five factors – developer activity, adoption, decentralization, scalability, and security – from which we arrive at our top five blockchains.
The stratospheric valuation of this year’s AI mania is likely to deflate, just as it did after the Web 1.0 mania of the late 90s. We go through some long-term and short-term investment implications.
In June, the rally gained momentum and broadened due to positive economic data, particularly in the housing market. We expect cheaper cyclical sectors and styles to mark a change in leadership as the rally broadens, helped on by excess cash on the sidelines. We upgrade Banks to equal-weight, and Homebuilders to overweight. The rally may continue but a soft landing continues to be elusive - disappointment may be in store.