経済
Our Global Investment Strategy colleagues believe trade tensions will offset the pro-business parts of the Trump administration’s agenda. They raised their 12-month recession probability to 75%. The recent rise in bond yields, partly fueled by Trump’s win,…
Our China Investment Strategy team recently met with clients in China to assess investor sentiment and discuss the outlook as Beijing unveils new stimulus measures. China’s economic recovery faces headwinds and is unlikely to stabilize until mid-2025.…
As highlighted recently, we do not think China’s announced stimulus measures will be enough to stave off deflation (see Today’s Pick). To lift China’s economy, Beijing must unveil large fiscal transfers to households and some initiatives to lift property…
The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectations, rising to 73 from 70.5 a month prior. Expectations drove the increase, jumping to 78.5 from 74.1, while current conditions worsened by 0.5 points to 64.4, missing…
本ストラテジー・インサイトは、イングランド銀行の本日の利下げおよび先週英国政府が発表した予算案に関する当社の見解を示します。
新たな貿易戦争の見通しは、トランプの政策の他の親企業的な側面の効果をそれ以上に相殺します。選挙に向けて労働市場がすでに弱まっていることから、当社は今後12か月の米国景気後退確率を65%から75%に引き上げます。
Our US Political strategists assessed the magnitude of the Republican sweep and discuss the path ahead as they take control of Washington. The GOP sweep was a resounding victory as they also clinched the popular vote. The “Blue Wall” (Wisconsin, Michigan,…
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE…