経済成長
European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?
The IMF’s latest fiscal monitor report highlighted the dangers that rising sovereign debt alongside rising deficits pose to advanced economies. The United States, in particular, is at risk. The IMF projects that fiscal deficits in the US will stay above 3% of…
BCA’s US Beige Book Monitor – an indicator we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s Beige Book report and which historically tracks US GDP growth – has improved in April. Nevertheless — and despite March's hot retail sales and February's…
The headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, increasing from 3.2 to a twelve-month high of 15.5 and beating expectations it would soften to 2.0. Measures of demand improved with new orders and…
The Asian currency index posted the largest negative post-GFC abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. Indeed, Asian currencies have been on a general downtrend since early 2023, and more recently fell 3.2% in absolute…
Chinese economic data releases painted a mixed picture of domestic conditions on Tuesday. Chinese real GDP growth accelerated from 5.2% y/y to 5.3% y/y in Q1 2024, beating expectations of 4.8% and suggesting that economic momentum improved at the start of…
Optimism about the future continues to boost investor confidence in the Euro Area. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+10.4 to 43.9) and Germany (+11.2 to 42.9) surged and are now both at their highest in 26 months. Although investors’…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.
Advanced estimates for retail sales in the US grew by 0.7% m/m in March, down from an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m in February, but meaningfully outperforming expectations of 0.3% m/m. Retail sales ex autos also surprised to the upside, coming in at 1.1% m/m…
In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.