Economy
Nearly all major financial assets we track outperformed their post-GFC average returns in January. In particular, US Investment Grade bonds posted the highest z-scores last month, followed by global government bonds. These assets benefitted from cooling…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the stocks of China’s largest platform companies are unlikely to experience a structural uptrend. Over time, Chinese platform companies will likely become de facto SOEs. As a result, their…
President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds over equities.
When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.
The Web 2.0 bubble is bursting, with far-reaching consequences for US stock market behaviour, sector allocation, and global asset allocation.
The Employment Cost Index decelerated to a lower-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q4 following 1.2%, corroborating several other indicators suggesting that wage growth is moderating in the US. Compensation within goods-producing industries grew at a constant 0.9%…
The preliminary GDP estimate suggests that the Euro Area economy expanded by 0.1% q/q in Q4 2022, beating expectations of a 0.1% q/q contraction. The improving energy situation due to milder-than-anticipated weather, as well as generous fiscal support…
China’s NBS PMI release delivered a positive surprise for January. Both the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing indices returned to expansion, suggesting that economic activity is gaining momentum following Beijing’s exit from the zero-Covid policy. As…
Preliminary estimates suggest that Spanish headline harmonized CPI inflation (HICP) accelerated to 5.8% y/y in January, from 5.5% y/y, largely surpassing expectations for a moderation to 4.8% y/y. A reacceleration of fuel prices compared to January 2022, as…
The Swiss KOF Barometer jumped 5.7 points to 97.2 in January, marking the second consecutive monthly increase, pushing the index to the highest level since June 2022. Importantly, the January increase reflects improvements across all of the KOF barometer’s…