CoreMacro Charts That Matter

On China, Global Macro And EM Asset Markets

Arthur Budaghyan, Head of CoreMacro

Emerging Markets

Published on

29 Apr 2024

We are publishing the chart pack I used during my meetings with clients and prospects in Europe last week. It contains charts on China, global macro, and EM asset classes, all of which are mostly self-explanatory and convey my views and analysis.

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Contents

Executive Summary / Insight
China: The Equity Risk Premium And SOE P/E Ratio
Chinese Stocks Are Oversold
China: Fiscal Spending And Credit Impulses
China: The Combined Credit And Fiscal Spending Impulse
China’s Deflation Is Pervasive
China: Nominal And Real Lending Rates
Property Market Is Entering Fourth Year Of Contraction
China: Lower Interest Rates = A Weaker RMB
Money Excesses In China
China: The Economy Is Struggling Despite 10% Credit Growth
Households Are Paying Off Mortgages
China: Household Debt And Overhang Of Incompleted Properties
Demographic Crisis In China
Japan In The 1990s
China’s Benign Rebalancing Was Never An Option
China: Household Spending Will Slow In 2024
Copper Market Enigma
Copper Prices And Exchange Inventories
Global Late-Cycle Dynamics
Global Markets Have Recently Been Trading Like In A Late Cycle
US Corporate Prices Versus Unit Labor Costs
Will US Businesses Hike Prices?
Will US Business Hike Prices?
The US: Positive Output Gap
US Labor Supply Has Expanded Due To Immigration
US Wages And Inflation
Breakout In Unit Labor Costs Entail Sticky Inflation
US Bond Yields And Sentiment
A Rise In US Bond Yields Ends With A Financial Turmoil
US Borrowing Costs Are High
Rising Stress In US Credit System
The US Credit Impulse And Fiscal Thrust
The US Domestic Demand Outlook
US Demand For Goods Has Improved
Euro Area: The Fiscal Thrust And Credit Impulse
Euro Area: The Domestic Demand Outlook
Euro Area: The Business Cycle
Mainstream EM
Mainstream EM: Interest Rates Are Still High And Will Weigh On Growth
The US Is The Only Driver Of Global Export Improvement
EM Stocks Correlate With The Global Manufacturing Cycle
EM Equity Valuations
EM And US Equity Valuations
EM Currency Markets’ Volatility Is Very Low
Downtrend In Cyclical Currencies
US Dollar VOL And US Intra-Stock Correlation
Complacency In US Equities
US Interest Rates & The US Dollar: No Stable Correlation
EM Domestic Bond Yields
Looking For Value In EM Local Bonds
EM Sovereign Credit Spreads
Mainstream EM Yields And Share Prices
No Breakout
No Breakout
Equity Leadership Rotations Occur During Or After Bear Markets
History Of Bubbles

Topics covered